Jonesboro, AR – (JonesboroRightNow.com) – July 27, 2024 – Several social media users recently have been highlighting recent National Guard earthquake drills in downtown St. Louis. Many of these social media users have begun to raise alarm for a potential major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault line. Videos seen by millions claim seismologists are predicting a catastrophic, about a 7.5 magnitude, earthquake to happen in the next fifty years, one that could split the country in half, cause damage to nearly half of the country, and put large parts of the country underwater. Though the question remains: Is a country splitting earthquake expected to hit the New Madrid fault line in the next fifty years?

The New Madrid seismic zone is about 150 miles long area that extends into five states, stretching from Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, and through Blytheville and Marked Tree here in Arkansas. This seismic zone is one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States and has recorded over 4000 earthquakes of various scales within the last forty years. Of those 4000 plus earthquakes, only three have been considered “large,” with the most recent happening in 1811.

Despite how active the New Madrid fault line is, seismologists say an earthquake in this seismic zone won’t be to the scale of international disaster like many social media users warn. United States Geological Survey Earthquake hazards Program coordinator, Tom Pratt, explains a rule of thumb for earthquakes. For every magnitude seven earthquake, there are about ten more magnitude six earthquakes. For every magnitude six earthquake, about ten more magnitude five earthquakes will happen, and this pattern continues on. While seismologists can forecast the probability of an earthquake based on historical trends, they can’t predict exactly when they will happen. Pratt said current estimates for magnitude seven or higher earthquakes to happen in the New Madrid Seismic Zone within the next 50 years lies around 7-10%.

The answer to the question of a country splitting earthquake happening is no, a country splitting earthquake won’t happen. It isn’t likely that a ‘catastrophic’ earthquake will happen in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, though we still want to give credit where credit is due to the National Guard taking part in routine exercises to ensure they are prepared!

If you want to prepare for an earthquake there are a few steps you can take:
– Ensure you have a grab bag with important documents, basic first aid and necessary medication, a flashlight, dust masks, non-perishable food, and water.
– Create a plan for you and your family.
– Identify things that may fall during shaking, such as televisions, bookcases, pictures, water heaters, and refrigerators. If possible, find a way to secure them in place.
– Learn “Drop, Cover, and Hold on.”

Sources:
– 8.4 earthquake at New Madrid fault won’t hit St. Louis soon | ksdk.com
– Earthquake Hazards Program | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)
– Earthquake Safety | Earthquake Preparedness | Red Cross
– Earthquake Hazards near the New Madrid Fault Zone | American Geosciences Institute