North Little Rock, AR – Jonesboro Right Now – Arkansas is heading into what the National Weather Service says could become one of the most significant heat waves the state has experienced in years — and forecasters are warning that the danger may extend beyond heat illness.
A prolonged stretch of extreme temperatures, little rainfall and increasingly warm nights could trigger what meteorologists call a “flash drought,” potentially creating short-term water supply concerns across parts of the state.
The National Weather Service office in North Little Rock issued a special hazardous weather briefing Tuesday afternoon warning Arkansans to prepare for sustained extreme heat rather than a one-day heat advisory. Forecasters have high confidence that dangerous heat will continue from Tuesday through at least Aug. 22.
And the forecasters are using unusually strong language to describe what may be coming.
In an email accompanying the briefing sent to Jonesboro Right Now, the North Little Rock forecast office said computer model data suggests the heat during the next 10 to 14 days could rank among the most historic heat waves in Arkansas weather history.
The office said the upcoming stretch could become the hottest period of consecutive days Arkansas has experienced since 2012.
Depending on how the event develops, forecasters said it could potentially exceed the severity of the 2011 and 2012 heat waves and possibly approach the historic impact of 1980.
It isn’t just about the daytime temperature
The forecast calls for statewide temperatures reaching at least the upper 90s this week, with high confidence that temperatures will exceed 100 degrees daily beginning this weekend.
That means Northeast Arkansas could be dealing with triple-digit temperatures repeatedly rather than experiencing an isolated exceptionally hot day.
And nighttime temperatures may provide little relief.
The National Weather Service expects overnight lows statewide to remain in the upper 70s this week, with the likelihood of temperatures reaching or exceeding 80 degrees increasing as the heat wave continues. Forecasters specifically note that prolonged heat without overnight relief has historically been a major factor in heat-related deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations.
The current forecast calls for afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat indexes potentially approaching 110 degrees in areas under a heat advisory. The weather service said heat warnings could be issued later this week.
What exactly is a “flash drought”?
It’s a term many people may not have heard before — and it is one of the reasons this heat wave could have consequences beyond simply making outdoor activities miserable.
The National Weather Service says the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting the potential for rapid-onset drought, or “flash drought,” even in areas of Arkansas that aren’t currently classified as being in drought.
The National Integrated Drought Information System defines flash drought as the rapid onset or intensification of drought. It can develop when below-normal rainfall combines with unusually high temperatures, winds and solar radiation.
In simple terms, a flash drought is a drought that develops quickly.
Normally, people tend to think of drought as something that builds gradually over months. A flash drought can develop much faster when extreme heat rapidly pulls moisture from soil and vegetation while little or no rain replaces it.
And Arkansas is not starting from a completely clean slate.
The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that more than half of Arkansas was already experiencing drought conditions classified as D1 or greater as of the weather service’s Tuesday briefing. Drought conditions have affected the state for much of 2026, although recent short-term improvements have occurred in western and north-central Arkansas.
Now, forecasters are concerned the combination of heat and a lack of rainfall could rapidly reverse those improvements and expand drought conditions.
Water could become part of the problem
Perhaps the most striking warning in the National Weather Service briefing is that potable water resources may become strained as extreme heat and flash drought occur together.
The weather service describes the combination of prolonged extreme heat and very little rainfall as an “almost perfect staging” for a flash drought across much of Arkansas.
Exactly how serious the water situation becomes will depend on how hot temperatures get, how long the heat persists and how much rain — if any — develops.
But the message from forecasters is clear: this is not something to watch one day at a time.
The weather service is recommending that communities prepare for several days of cooling operations even under the lower-end temperature scenario.
Outdoor activities face a particular challenge
The extreme heat could also arrive at an especially difficult time for students and athletes beginning fall sports.
The National Weather Service specifically warns that the excessive heat will create significant stress for outdoor activities, including students beginning fall sports practices and competitions.
Forecasters are also emphasizing basic heat safety: use air conditioning when available because fans may not be adequate during extreme heat, limit strenuous outdoor activity during the afternoon, stay hydrated and wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
For Northeast Arkansas, the message is a simple one:
The hottest part of the summer may still be ahead — and this time, the concern isn’t just how hot the thermometer gets. It’s how long the heat lasts, how little relief comes at night and what happens to Arkansas’ water and soil when the rain stops.